Evidence

Understanding population trends and anticipating demographic change are crucial for national development planning and for implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Countries, where population growth has slowed or stopped, must prepare for an increasing proportion of older persons and, in some cases, decreasing population size. These and other challenges can be addressed in part by responding to future demographic trends and incorporating that information into policies and planning.

World Population Prospects 2022 is the twenty-seventh edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population that have been published by the United Nations since 1951. They form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. This report provides an overview of global population trends focusing on the period from 1950 to 2050 and presents a summary of key demographic prospects during the second half of the present century.

Key takeaways

• The global population is estimated to reach 8 billion by the end of 2022. The projections suggest that the world's population could grow to around 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion during the 2080s.

• The countries of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania will have more than 50% of the projected increase in global population up to 2050.

• India is likely to surpass China as world's most populous country in 2023. India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050. The fertility rate in India has fallen substantially in the recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just 2 births per woman today.

• Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth around 5 times. Since then, fertility rates have more than halved. In 2021, this global figure was 2.3 births per woman.

• In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility have led to a “demographic dividend”, with a rise in the share of the working age population (25 to 64 years).

• Global life expectancy at birth stood at 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990; however, it fell to 71.0 years in 2021, due mostly to the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

• Life expectancy at birth for women exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life expectancies standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively.

• Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.

• The report recommends that countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programs to the growing numbers of older persons, establishing universal health care and long-term care systems, and by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.

• Ten countries including Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka had a net outflow of more than 1 million migrants between 2010 and 2021, mainly due to temporary labour movements. Meanwhile, insecurity and conflicts have driven the outflow of migrants from the Syrian Arab Republic, Venezuela and Myanmar.

• Achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.